体球网


2019年国际性事态与内地外交:“中流击水、浪遏飞舟”

当上辈子界事态扑朔迷离、填满冲突,大国博弈持续加剧,国际性秩序正经历新旧更替的转型过渡期。与此同时,内地正站立在全球历史发展的重要关头,处于华夏民族杰出振兴的核心時刻。全球百年未有之大变局与内地发展之历史机遇期彼此叠加,决定了内地既面临空前的机遇,也面临扑朔迷离的风险性挑战。

国际性政治安全性事态跌宕起伏

YI、“MEIGUOYOUXIAN”ZAOCHENGGUOJIXINGANQUANXINGFENGXIANXINGJIAJU

2019年,全球并不太平。美国國家安全性战略视大国市场竞争为主要关切,执意以“美国优先”原则重塑全球秩序,造成大国战略博弈加剧。2019财年,美国国防预算高达7163亿美元。2019年体球网2月,特朗普签署《第四号太空政策命令》,决定组建太空军队。4月,美国国防部发布《核威慑政策》,宣布美国核威慑政策、核武器及“核三位一体”在國家安全性中的作用,继续鼓吹增强军事威慑的必需性,注重绝不采用不首先应用核武器的政策立场。7月,美国国防部将美军“副本使命”由“阻止战争”改动为“打造出致命部队”。8月,美国正式撤出《中导条约》。美方此举或将标示着美俄新一轮军备比赛的刚开始,全全球战略平衡和亚太安全性面临冷战后空前的挑战。除此之外,在对外政策上,特朗普政府谋求单边强项,在经贸、军费平摊难题上与欧、日等传统式盟友冲突连续不停;在伊核、气侯转变等难题上唯唯诺诺;在叙利亚、乌克兰、核军控、北约东扩等难题上,与俄罗斯针锋相对,大国冲突凸显,战略市场竞争升级。

体球网ER、ZHONGMEIZHANLVEBOYICHIXUYANSHEN

JIMEIGUOXINBANGUOJIAANQUANXINGZHANLVEXUANRAN“NEIDIWEIXIELUN”HOU,MEIGUO《2019CAINIANGUOFANGSHOUQUANFAAN》JIANLIBIAOSHI,“YUNEIDIDEZHANGQIZHANLVESHICHANGJINGZHENGSHIMEIGUOZUIWEIYOUXIANDEFUBEN”。2019NIAN6YUE,MEIGUOGUOFANGBUGONGKAI《YINTAIZHANLVEHUIBAO》,BIAOSHIQIJINNIANLAILAILIANXUBUTINGXUANYANGDE“ZIYOUDUIWAIKAIFANG”DEYINTAIZHANLVEZHENGSHICHENGXING。SUIZHEZHONGMEIZHENGTISHILIBIZHAODEXIAOZHANG,MEIGUODUINEIDIDEFANGFANHEDAYALIDUZHUBUZENGQIANG。ZAINANHAINANTISHANG,MEIJUNCHIXUFAQI“HANGXINGZIYOU”XINGDONG。ZAITAIWANNANTISHANG,MEIGUOLIANXUBUTINGSHITANZHONGZHONGGUODIFANGMIANDIXIAN,“DATAIWANPAI”DEWANGTUQIANGLIE。CHUCIZHIWAI,ZHONGMEIGUANCHUANHULIANWANGANQUANXINGDENGFANGMIANDECHONGTUHEKANGZHENGCHIXULIANXUBUTING。JINGUAN12YUEZHONGXUNZHONGMEIJIUDIYIHUANJIEJINGMAOXIEYIWENZIDACHENGTONGYI,WEI2020NIANLIANGGUOJINGJIXIANGDUIPINGWENFAZHANCHUSHILEJIBEN,YEJIANGDILEQUANQUANQIUJINGJIMIANLINDEBUQUERENXING,DANMEIGUOZHANLVE“YIYUGAN”BINGWEIJIECHU,QIQUANFANGWEIJIYANEIDIDEZHANLVEFANGZHENZHENGCEMEIYOUBIANGENG。FANSHI,ZHONGMEIBOYIRENGJIUJUYOUFANZAXING、FANZHONGXINGHEZHANGQIXINGTEDIAN。

SAN、OUMENGYITIHUAJIANKUQIANXING

2019NIAN,OUZHOUJINGJIXIAXINGYALIZENGDA。2YUE,OUMENGWEIYUANHUIJIANGOUMENG27GUO2019NIANDUGDPZENGSUYUQIXIADIAOZHI1.5%,JIANGOUYUANQU19GUOGDPZENGSUYUQIXIADIAOZHI1.3%。TONGSHI,OUZHOUZHENGZHISHENGTAICHANSHENGJIDAZHUANBIAN,NEIBUCHONGTUDIEJIA,MINCUIZHENGDANGFAZHANHUOSU。5YUE,JUSHIZHUMUDEOUZHOUYIHUITUIXUANLUOMU。JINGUANOUZHOUYIHUIQINOU、YIOULIANGPAIZONGTIBUJUCHANGGUIPINGWEN,DANOUZHOUYIHUILIANGDADANGLIANSHOUZHIZHENGDECHUANTONGSHINANYIYANXU,ZUGEDANGPAIZENGDUO,BUPINGWENXINGSHANGSHENG。FALAOBAIXINGCUIZHUYIBINGWEIYANQIXIGU,“HUANGMAJIA”YUNDONGYIZHOUNIANZHIJI,BAOLIYOUXINGZAIQI。YIDALI、BOLANHEBEIOUGUOJIADENGCHUANTONGSHIZHENGZHICHUXIANFENLIE,ELIEZHENGZHIQUANSHICHENGXINGQISHITOU。DEGUOMIANLINYOUYILUNLISHIJIONGJING,JIHERUZAICIZUO“ZHENGCHANGDEDAGUO”。ZHIDENEIDIJINGXINGDESHI,ZAIMEIGUOCHIXUSUNHUAIDUOBIANGUOJIXINGZHIXUDEQINGXINGXIA,OUMENGWEIHUBAOYANGZHUYI、PAIWAIZHUYIYUZIGUXINTAIGAOZHANG,JIADALEDUINEIDIZAIOUTOUZIBINGGOUDESHANGXIAN。

2019NIANSHIFENGBEIYUECHENGLI70ZHOUNIAN,MEIOUNEIBUYUNXINGJIZHISHENCENGJICHONGTUTUXIAN。MEIFANGBAOYUAN“BEIYUEGUOSHI”,YAOQIUQIZENGJIAJUNFEI;FAFANGZECHENGBEIYUEZHENGJINGLI“NAOSHENWANG”。BEIYUECHENGYUANGUOFENGHUI12YUECHUZAILUNDUNJUBAN,ZHIZAISHANGYIHERUMIANDUIXINTIAOZHANBINGQUERENJINHOUCHULU。DANBEIYUENEIBUZAIHERUCHULIYUELUOSIGUANXIHEJUNFEIFENDANSHANGFASHENGMAODUN。CHUCIZHIWAI,ZAICIQIANJUBANDEBEIYUEBUZHANGJIDAHUISHANG,MEIGUOGUOWUQINGPENGPEIAOCENGYAOQIUBEIYUEMIANDUI“NEIDIWEIXIE”,MEIGUOHAIZAIFENGHUISHANGCUICUOUZHOUMENGYOUGONGTONGXIEDIAOZAI5GHULIANWANGNANTISHANGDELICHANG,DANFA、DEDENGOUZHOUGUOJIAZAISHANGSHUNANTISHANGBUKENCHEDIZHUISUIMEIGUO。ZUIHOU,BEIYUEFENGHUILINGDAOGANBURENQIANSHUXIETONGSHENMING,SHOUCICHENGRENNEIDIFAZHANJIBEIYUEDAILAILE“JIYUHETIAOZHAN”。

SI、YINGGUO“TUOOU”YIBOSANZHE

YINGGUO“TUOOU”FAANCENGZAI2018NIANHUOYINGGUONVWANGPIZHUN,OUMENG27GUOLINGDAOGANBURENYIGENJUYINGGUO“TUOOU”XIEYICAOAN。DAN2019NIAN3YUE,YINGGUOYIHUIWEIGENJUGAIDONGHOUDE“TUOOU”XIEYI。4YUE,OUMENGYUANYI“TUOOU”RIQITUICHIZHI10YUE31RI。6YUE,YINGGUOSHOUXIANGTELEISHA?MEILIZHI。7YUE,BAOLISI·YUEHANXUNSHANGRENYINGGUOSHOUXIANG,XINSHIDANDANBIAOSHIKEQIJINXING“TUOOU”。XIANRAN,10YUE,YINGGUOYIHUIYOUFOUJUELEYUEHANXUNSUOTIJIAODESHIJIANBIAO,“TUOOU”BIANWEI“TUOOU”,ZAIYINGGUOZHONGGUOHEOUMENGYINFADUOZHONGZHENDANG。ZAI12YUEZHONGXUNDEDAXUANZHONG,YUEHANXUNLINGDAOGANBUDEBAOSHOUDANGHUODEDASHENG。20RI,YINGGUOXIAYIYUANGENJUXIN“TUOOU”XIEYI,DINGYU2020NIAN1YUE31RIZHENGSHI“TUOOU”,DANJIUSUANZHEIBANYENANYIPINGXIYINGGUODESHENCENGJICHONGTU。

国际性经济下行风险性增大